Long-term Capital Market Return Assumptions

Nov 30, 2010

 
Research and publications

Long-term Capital Market Return Assumptions

LTCMRA
J.P. Morgan Asset Management Long-term Capital Market Return Assumptions summarize our long-term (10–15 year) return expectations, expected volatilities and correlations across key asset classes.

Methodology

These assumptions are developed each year by our Assumptions Committee, a multi-asset class team of senior investors from across the firm. The Committee relies on the input and expertise of a range of portfolio managers and product specialists, striving to ensure that the analysis is consistent across asset classes. The final step in the process is a rigorous review of the proposed assumptions and their underlying rationale (as depicted in the figure below) with the senior management of J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Fixed income

Equity

Alternatives

 
  • Equilibrium yield
  • Plus or minus expected valuation changes
  • Inflation
  • Real earnings growth
  • Dividend yield
  • Plus or minus expected valuation changes
  • Historical analysis/investor judgment about relationship to public markets
  • Estimates are based on industry medians
 


These Long-term Capital Market Return assumptions are used widely by institutional investors—including pension plans, insurance companies, endowments and foundations — to ensure that investment policies and decisions are based on real-world, consistent views and can be tested under a variety of market scenarios.

Long-term Capital Market Return Assumptions (pdf)

Related
December 9, 2010
Webcast: Outlook for Long-Term Capital Market Returns

Questions
For further information contact your J.P. Morgan representative or email: jpmam.info@jpmorgan.com
 
 

 

 
 

 

 
 
 

 
 

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