These assumptions are developed each year by our Assumptions Committee, a multi-asset class team of senior investors from across the firm. The Committee relies on the input and expertise of a range of portfolio managers and product specialists, striving to ensure that the analysis is consistent across asset classes. The final step in the process is a rigorous review of the proposed assumptions and their underlying rationale with the senior management of J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
These Long-term Capital Market Return Assumptions are used widely by institutional investors—including pension plans, insurance companies, endowments and foundations — to ensure that investment policies and decisions are based on real-world, consistent views and can be tested under a variety of market scenarios.
Webcast Replay from December 6, 2012
Three senior members of our Assumptions Committee – David Shairp, Michael Feser and Tony Werley – reveal our long-term capital market return and risk assumptions, including:
Broad themes impacting our capital market assumptions: the long road to deleveraging and the challenges for policy maker's around the globe
The interplay of emerging and developed market dynamics and implications for growth, inflation, currency and capital market returns
Our long-term outlook across a broad range of asset classes, from fixed income to equity and alternatives (hedge funds, private equity, commodities, real estate and infrastructure) and the implications for investors
This website is intended to report solely on the investment strategies and opportunities identified by J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Additional information is available upon request. Information herein is believed to be reliable but J.P. Morgan Asset Management does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The investments and strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors; if you have any doubts you should consult your J.P. Morgan Asset Management Client Advisor, Broker or Portfolio Manager. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. You should consult your tax or legal advisor about the issues discussed herein.
JPMAM Long Term Capital Market Assumptions: Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we advise clients to rely on judgment as well as quantitative optimization approaches in setting strategic allocations. Please note that all information shown is based on qualitative analysis. Exclusive reliance on the above is not advised. This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class or strategy or as a promise of future performance. Note that these asset class and strategy assumptions are passive only–they do not consider the impact of active management. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Assumptions, opinions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only. They should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities. Forecasts of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material has been prepared for information purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. The outputs of the assumptions are provided for illustration/discussion purposes only and are subject to significant limitations. "Expected" or "Alpha" return estimates are subject to uncertainty and error. For example changes in the historical data from which it is estimated will result in different implications for asset class returns. Expected returns for each asset class conditional on an economic scenario; actual returns in the event the scenario comes to pass could be higher or lower, as they have been in the past, so an investor should not expect to achieve returns similar to the outputs shown herein . References to future returns for either asset allocation strategies or asset classes are not promises of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Because of the inherent limitations of all models, potential investors should not rely exclusively on the model when making a decision. The model cannot account for the impact that economic, market, and other factors may have on the implementation and ongoing management of an actual investment portfolio. Unlike actual portfolio outcomes, the model outcomes do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, expenses, taxes and other factors that could impact the future returns. The model assumptions are passive only—they do not consider the impact of active management. A manager's ability to achieve similar outcomes is subject to risk factors over which the manager may have no or limited control.
Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met.
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