Twelve in 2012: What Politics Can Mean for Markets in the Year Ahead
2011 has been extraordinary in a number of respects, including the influence of politics on financial markets. In "Twelve in 2012: What Politics Can Mean for Markets in the Year Ahead," this paper describes several reasons why politics could play an even bigger role in the markets in the year ahead.
- The coming 12 months will see more than a dozen key elections around the world, in countries representing nearly 50% of global GDP.
- With global growth relatively fragile, politics and potential policy shifts will likely get heightened market attention.
- Politics matters not just for respective countries’ markets but in some cases, for global financial trends.
- Key politically related market risks we’d highlight into next year include: (1) potentially higher oil prices tied to supply worries; (2) Asian market volatility tied to regional geopolitics; and (3) unexpected shifts in Euro area politics impacting regional markets as well as global sentiment.
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